Novibet · Weekly · Dec 2025 – Feb 2026
Early Win – First Deep Dive
An interactive analysis of Early Win and Cash Out feature adoption, bet-level usage, and staking behaviour across countries and VIP segments over an 8-week rolling window.
Adoption Rate
User Level
  • Share of users (bettors) who used Early Win at least once, during the week
  • Share of users (bettors) who used Cash Out at least once, during the week
  • Feature overlap between Early Win & Cash Out
  • Weekly trend across countries and comparison (Greece, Brazil, Mexico, Chile, Ecuador, Ireland)
  • VIP vs Non-VIP breakdown
Feature Rate
Bet Level
  • How often Early Win and Cash Out are triggered per bet
  • Weekly trend across countries and comparison (Greece, Brazil)
  • Split by bet type (Bet Builder Combo, Multiple, System, All)
  • VIP vs Non-VIP breakdown
Stakes & Legs
Bet Level
  • Average stake for Early Win, Cash Out, and all bets
  • Average leg count by feature and bet type
  • Weekly trend across countries and comparison (Greece, Brazil)
  • VIP vs Non-VIP breakdown
Executive Summary
Adoption Rate — User Level
Cross-market view of who adopts Early Win vs Cash Out, how segments differ, and where the biggest growth levers sit — before diving into each country.
1

Cash Out dominates Early Win by 3–6× everywhere

Average CO adoption is ~17% Non-VIP / ~41% VIP vs EW at ~5.3% / ~10.8%. The gap is universal across all six markets.

Baseline
2

Brazil is the biggest EW growth opportunity

Lowest EW adoption but highest CO adoption — 39.4% of VIPs cash out but don't use EW. That's the largest untapped cross-sell pool.

Opportunity
3

VIPs are the EW power users everywhere

2–2.6× higher adoption than Non-VIP in every market. Any EW initiative should prioritize VIP targeting first.

Key Segment
4

Mexico is the EW success story

Highest adoption (10.7% Non-VIP, 19.4% VIP), highest overlap with CO. Whatever Mexico is doing differently is working.

Success Story
5

No organic growth in user-level adoption

The 8-week trend is flat everywhere. Growth requires active product/marketing intervention — it won't happen naturally.

Critical
6

Ireland is the weakest market for both features

Consistently last in every metric. May need market-specific investigation into visibility, sport coverage, or competitive landscape.

Watch
A

Launch Brazil VIP EW Cross-Sell Campaign

Target the 39.4% of VIPs who cash out but never use EW. Use in-app nudges, bet slip prompts, and CRM messaging.

High Priority
Brazil
B

Study the Mexico Playbook

Mexico has 2–3× the EW adoption of peer markets. Investigate what's different and replicate winning patterns in Brazil and Greece.

High Priority
Best Practice
C

Design Active Intervention Experiments

Flat adoption proves organic growth won't happen. Run A/B tests on product placement and marketing pushes (first-EW bonuses, education).

Medium Priority
Required
D

VIP-First Rollout Strategy

VIPs are 2–2.6× more receptive. Pilot every new EW initiative with VIP segments first — faster feedback, bigger revenue impact per user.

Medium Priority
Segment

Greece

Greece — Key Takeaways

Cash Out dominates; Early Win remains niche.
Cash Out adoption is 3–4× higher than Early Win across both segments.

Early Win users already know Cash Out — not the reverse.
Most EW adopters also use Cash Out (~43% Non-VIP, ~67% VIP), but the vast majority of Cash Out users have never tried Early Win.

VIPs engage more with both features.
VIP adoption is roughly double Non-VIP for both features, with higher overlap — VIPs are more willing to experiment.

Biggest growth lever: convert Cash Out users to Early Win.
Over 80% of Cash Out users haven't tried EW — and they already understand acting on a live bet.

Brazil

Brazil — Key Takeaways

Widest CO/EW gap of any market — Cash Out is 5× larger.
EW adoption sits at just ~3.4% Non-VIP while CO reaches ~18%; among VIPs, CO hits ~46% vs EW at ~9%.

EW users know Cash Out, but not the reverse.
Over half of EW adopters also use CO (~53% Non-VIP, ~73% VIP), yet only ~10% of CO users have tried Early Win.

VIPs amplify both features equally — the 5× gap persists.
VIP adoption is ~2.5× Non-VIP for both EW and CO, but the ratio between them stays flat, unlike markets where VIPs narrow the gap.

Largest untapped cross-sell pool: ~16% are CO-only users.
Brazil's massive CO base combined with the lowest EW penetration makes it the highest-potential market for EW conversion campaigns.

Mexico

Mexico — Key Takeaways

Narrowest CO/EW gap — Mexico leads Early Win adoption.
CO is only ~2× EW here (vs 3–5× elsewhere). Non-VIP EW at ~10.7% and VIP EW at ~19.4% are the highest of any market.

Strongest feature overlap — users engage with both.
~28% of Non-VIP CO users also try EW (vs ~16% in Greece, ~10% in Brazil). VIP overlap reaches ~13.5%, the highest anywhere.

VIPs reach ~19% EW adoption — proof the feature can scale.
Mexico VIPs show that with the right product-market fit, nearly 1 in 5 users will adopt Early Win alongside Cash Out.

Mexico is the model market — study what drives higher EW uptake.
Its unique position (highest EW, highest overlap, narrowest gap) suggests product or market factors that other countries should replicate.

Chile

Chile — Key Takeaways

Moderate CO/EW ratio (~2.7×) with balanced user split.
Non-VIP EW sits at ~7.8% vs CO at ~21%. EW-only (~3.8%) and overlap (~4%) are nearly equal — a rare balanced split.

EW attracts a distinct user type, not just CO spillover.
The near 50/50 split between EW-only and overlap users in Non-VIP suggests EW appeals to a segment that doesn't naturally gravitate to Cash Out.

VIP overlap surges — most VIP EW users also Cash Out.
VIP overlap reaches ~10.9% (of ~14.9% EW adoption), meaning ~73% of VIP EW users are dual-feature adopters.

Non-VIP "EW-only" cohort is a unique conversion opportunity.
Unlike other markets, Chile's EW-only users (~3.8%) are sizable — introducing them to Cash Out could lift overall engagement.

Ecuador

Ecuador — Key Takeaways

CO/EW ratio (~2.6×) mirrors Greece, but at higher absolute rates.
Non-VIP EW is ~8.9% and CO is ~23%; both exceed Greece's levels while maintaining a similar relative gap.

VIP overlap doesn't scale like other markets.
EW-to-CO crossover is ~54% in Non-VIP and ~55% in VIP — virtually flat, unlike Greece or Brazil where VIPs show a much higher crossover jump.

Highest "EW-Only" VIP share (~5.8%) — some VIPs prefer EW exclusively.
Ecuador VIPs who use EW without CO are notably more common than in other markets, suggesting a distinct user preference.

Understand what drives exclusive EW loyalty among VIPs.
Ecuador's unique EW-only cohort could reveal product features or betting behaviours that make EW independently valuable — insights for other markets.

Ireland

Ireland — Key Takeaways

Lowest adoption for both features — a market penetration challenge.
Non-VIP EW (~3.7%) and CO (~10.2%) are the lowest of any country; even VIP CO (~27.8%) trails other markets' Non-VIP rates.

The CO/EW ratio (~2.8×) is normal — adoption is low for both, not skewed.
Unlike Brazil (5× gap), Ireland's challenge isn't EW specifically — it's overall feature engagement across the board.

VIP crossover behaves like mature markets.
~71% of VIP EW users also Cash Out, on par with Chile and Brazil — VIPs who try EW are equally engaged here.

Priority: drive broader feature awareness before optimising cross-sell.
With both features under-penetrated, Ireland needs visibility and education campaigns rather than EW-to-CO conversion tactics.

All Countries

All Countries — Key Takeaways

Cash Out consistently 2–5× higher than Early Win — the gap is universal.
Average CO adoption is ~17% Non-VIP and ~41% VIP; EW sits at ~5.3% and ~10.8% respectively.

Mexico is the clear standout — narrowest gap, highest EW, highest overlap.
With EW at ~10.7% Non-VIP and ~19.4% VIP, Mexico proves the feature can reach meaningful scale; its success factors deserve investigation.

VIP status doubles adoption but widens the CO/EW ratio.
The gap grows from ~3.2× Non-VIP to ~3.8× VIP on average — VIPs disproportionately favour Cash Out, making EW's VIP growth an untapped lever.

Converting just 10% of CO-only users would roughly double EW adoption.
CO-only users average ~14.5% Non-VIP and ~33% VIP — they already understand acting on a live bet, making them the ideal EW target.

Executive Summary
Feature Rate — Bet Level
How often EW and CO are applied per bet (not per user). This reveals whether adopted users engage deeply or just dabble — and where bet-level growth is hiding.
1

CO dominates at bet level too — 3–6× higher per-bet rates

Greece CO is ~7% vs EW ~2%; Brazil's gap is steeper at ~9% vs ~1.7%. The user-level gap carries through to per-bet usage.

Baseline
2

VIP status lifts CO bet rates but leaves EW flat

VIP CO rises to ~7.4% (Greece) and ~10.1% (Brazil) vs Non-VIP, while EW stays at ~1.7% in both — the per-bet VIP effect is CO-only.

Gap
3

EW bets are structurally different — 40–55% more legs

EW appeals to accumulator builders, not simple bettors. This shapes who uses EW at the bet level and which bet types drive engagement.

Product DNA
4

Brazil VIP EW bet rate is growing fast (+65% in 8 weeks)

Despite flat user-level adoption, Brazil VIPs are applying EW to more bets over time — early signal of deeper engagement even before user acquisition grows.

Momentum
A

Position EW for Accumulator Builders

EW users build 40–55% more legs. Tailor EW marketing to complexity-seekers: highlight partial win protection on multi-leg bets, not simple singles.

Medium Priority
Product
B

Track Brazil VIP Bet-Rate Momentum

Brazil VIP EW bet rate grew +65% in 8 weeks. Set up weekly monitoring to confirm this isn't seasonal and measure intervention impact.

Ongoing
Monitoring
C

Investigate Why VIP Status Doesn't Lift EW Bet Rates

VIPs apply CO to more bets, but EW stays flat at ~1.7%. Understanding this disconnect could unlock per-bet frequency gains.

Medium Priority
Investigation

Greece

Greece — Key Takeaways

CO bet rate is 3–4× higher than EW across all bet types.
Overall CO is ~7.0% Non-VIP and ~7.4% VIP vs EW at ~2.2% and ~1.7% respectively.

VIPs Cash Out more per bet but use Early Win less.
VIP EW bet rate (~1.7%) is actually lower than Non-VIP (~2.2%) — VIP status boosts CO usage at the bet level, not EW.

System bets have the widest CO/EW gap (~5.4× Non-VIP, ~8.5× VIP).
System bets reach ~8.6% CO Non-VIP and ~9.4% VIP, suggesting complex bet types favour Cash Out disproportionately.

EW engagement is bet-type agnostic — it doesn't spike for any category.
EW rates hover at 1.6–2.4% regardless of bet type, while CO varies more — implying EW usage is driven by user behaviour, not bet construction.

Brazil

Brazil — Key Takeaways

Steepest CO/EW gap at bet level — 5–6× across all views.
Non-VIP CO is ~9.2% vs EW at ~1.7% (~5.4×); VIP CO rises to ~10.1% while EW stays flat at ~1.7% (~5.9×).

EW bet rate is identical across VIP and Non-VIP (~1.7%).
Unlike user-level adoption (which doubles for VIPs), bet-level EW usage is flat — VIPs who adopt EW don't apply it to more bets.

BetBuilderCombo drives the highest CO rates (~10–11%).
Complex combo bets see the steepest CO engagement in both segments, while EW is lowest on this type (~1.3% Non-VIP).

Brazil's CO bet rates exceed Greece by ~30% — higher per-bet engagement.
At 9–10% vs Greece's 7–7.4%, Brazil's bettors Cash Out more frequently per bet, not just per user, deepening the EW gap.

All Countries (Only Greece and Brazil)

All Countries — Key Takeaways

CO dominates at bet level in both markets — but the gap varies.
Greece's CO/EW ratio is ~3.2× while Brazil's is ~5.4×; Brazil bettors Cash Out more frequently per bet (9.2% vs 7.0%).

EW bet rates are remarkably similar (~1.7–2.2%) despite very different user adoption.
User-level adoption diverges (Greece 6% vs Brazil 3.4%), but per-bet EW usage converges — adoptive users apply EW at similar rates.

VIP status lifts CO bet rates but leaves EW flat.
VIP CO rises to ~7.4% (Greece) and ~10.1% (Brazil) vs Non-VIP, while EW stays at ~1.7% in both — the per-bet VIP effect is CO-only.

Complex bets amplify CO but not EW — bet type matters for Cash Out only.
System and BetBuilderCombo show the highest CO rates; EW is flat across types, suggesting EW triggers are independent of bet complexity.

Executive Summary
Stakes & Legs — Bet Level
How much money and how many legs go into EW vs CO bets. This reveals the economic profile of each feature and the two distinct bettor types they serve.
1

EW = long slips, CO = big stakes — the pattern is universal

EW bets have ~8.4–9.7 legs (40–55% more than average), while CO bets carry the highest stakes (~€7–14 Non-VIP, up to €52 VIP).

Product DNA
2

Cash Out bets carry the most money

€52.61 avg for Greek VIP CO bets. CO is the revenue anchor. EW bets are lower-stakes but could grow if adoption increases.

Revenue
3

Two distinct bettor profiles emerge

EW users build longer, lower-stake slips (complexity-seekers); CO users bet shorter slips with higher stakes (value-seekers). These profiles hold across both markets.

Segmentation
4

VIPs stake ~4× more but the structural pattern holds

VIP stakes scale up proportionally (CO > EW > All) while leg counts remain virtually identical to Non-VIP. The ~4× VIP multiplier is consistent across markets.

VIP Effect
A

Position EW for Accumulator Builders

EW users build 40–55% more legs. Market EW as partial-win protection for multi-leg bets — target the complexity-seeker profile, not simple bettors.

Medium Priority
Product
B

Protect & Optimise Cash Out Revenue

CO bets carry the highest stakes (€52.61 avg VIP in Greece). While growing EW, ensure CO experience remains frictionless — it's the revenue anchor.

Ongoing
Revenue
C

Explore EW Stake Growth for VIPs

EW stakes sit below market average for Non-VIPs. Test whether higher-stakes EW promotions or VIP-specific EW incentives can close the gap with CO stake levels.

Medium Priority
Experiment

Greece

Greece — Key Takeaways

EW is the long-accumulator feature — ~8.4 legs vs ~6 average.
EW bets have ~40% more legs than all bets in both segments, while CO bets are closer to average (~5.5 Non-VIP, ~5.1 VIP).

Cash Out captures the big-stake bets — EW sits below average.
Non-VIP CO stakes are ~€14.3 (~1.7× average), while EW stakes (~€7.5) are actually below the €8.3 market average.

VIPs bet 4× larger but the structural pattern holds.
VIP stakes scale up proportionally (CO ~€52.6, EW ~€38, all ~€32) while leg counts remain virtually identical to Non-VIP.

EW appeals to complexity-seekers; CO appeals to value-seekers.
EW users build longer, lower-stake slips; CO users bet shorter slips with higher stakes — two distinct bettor profiles.

Brazil

Brazil — Key Takeaways

Brazil builds longer accumulators than Greece across the board.
EW bets average ~9.7 legs (vs Greece ~8.4), all bets ~7.2 (vs ~6.0) — Brazil's market naturally favours more selections per slip.

EW stakes match the market average — no premium, unlike CO.
Non-VIP EW stakes (~€4.3) sit at parity with the €4.3 average, while CO stakes (~€7.3) are ~1.7× higher — CO is the "big bet" feature.

VIPs play shorter slips but stake ~4× more.
VIP EW drops to ~8.9 legs (from ~9.7 Non-VIP) while stakes jump to ~€25.6 — VIPs trade complexity for bigger wagers.

Lower nominal stakes than Greece — but the same structural pattern.
Brazil's overall stakes are ~50% of Greece's, yet the CO > EW > All hierarchy and VIP multiplier (~4×) are identical across both markets.

All Countries (Only Greece and Brazil)

All Countries — Key Takeaways

EW = long slips, CO = big stakes — the pattern is universal.
In both markets, EW bets have the most legs (~8.4–9.7) while CO bets carry the highest stakes (~€7.3–14.3 Non-VIP).

Brazil builds longer accumulators; Greece bets bigger per slip.
Brazil adds ~1.2 more legs across all categories, but Greece stakes are ~2× higher — a clear market-level difference in betting style.

VIPs shorten slips slightly but stake ~4× more — in both markets.
VIP leg counts dip below Non-VIP, but the ~4× VIP stake multiplier is remarkably consistent across Greece and Brazil.

Two distinct user profiles emerge: EW = complexity-seeker, CO = value-seeker.
These profiles hold across both markets and segments — EW and CO serve fundamentally different bettor needs.

What We Keep — Top-Level Strategic Insights

These are the confirmed findings from the 8-week deep dive across all six markets. They are the foundation for every recommendation that follows.

1

Cash Out dominates Early Win by 3–6× everywhere

EW is the junior feature. The adoption gap is largest in Brazil (3.4% vs 18.1% Non-VIP).

Baseline
2

Brazil is the biggest EW growth opportunity

Lowest EW adoption but highest CO adoption — 39.4% of VIPs cash out but don't use EW. That's a massive cross-sell pool. Brazil VIP EW bet rate is already growing +65% over 8 weeks.

Opportunity
3

VIPs are the EW power users everywhere

2–2.6× higher adoption, higher stakes, and growing bet-level engagement. Any EW initiative should prioritize VIP targeting.

Key Segment
4

Mexico is the EW success story

Highest adoption in both tiers (10.7% Non-VIP, 19.4% VIP), highest overlap with CO (13.5% VIP using both). Whatever Mexico is doing differently is working.

Success Story
5

EW bets are structurally different

More legs (~40–55% more), higher complexity. EW appeals to accumulator builders, not simple bettors.

Product DNA
6

Cash Out bets carry the most money

€52.61 avg for Greek VIP CO bets. This is where the revenue impact is. EW bets are lower-stakes but could grow if adoption increases.

Revenue
7

Ireland is the weakest market for both features

Consistently last in every metric. May need market-specific investigation.

Watch
8

No organic growth in user-level adoption

The 8-week trend is flat everywhere. Growth requires active product/marketing intervention — it won't happen naturally.

Critical

What's Next — Recommended Actions

Based on the insights above, these are the highest-impact initiatives to pursue next — ordered by potential ROI and feasibility.

A

Launch Brazil VIP EW Cross-Sell Campaign

Target the 39.4% of VIPs who cash out but never use Early Win. They already engage with in-play features — EW is a natural extension. Use in-app nudges, bet slip prompts, and CRM messaging.

High Priority
Brazil
B

Study the Mexico Playbook

Mexico has 2–3× the EW adoption of peer markets. Investigate what's different: UI placement? Local promotions? Sport mix? Replicate winning patterns in Brazil and Greece.

High Priority
Best Practice
C

Design Active Intervention Experiments

Flat adoption proves organic growth won't happen. Run A/B tests on product placement (bet slip integration, post-bet pop-ups) and marketing pushes (first-EW bonuses, educational content).

Medium Priority
Required
D

VIP-First Rollout Strategy

VIPs are 2–2.6× more receptive to EW. Pilot every new EW initiative with VIP segments first — faster feedback loops, higher success rates, bigger revenue impact per user.

Medium Priority
Segment
E

Position EW for Accumulator Builders

EW users build 40–55% more legs. Tailor EW marketing to complexity-seekers: highlight partial win protection on multi-leg bets, not simple singles.

Medium Priority
Product
F

Protect & Optimise Cash Out Revenue

CO bets carry the highest stakes (€52.61 avg VIP in Greece). While growing EW, ensure CO experience remains frictionless — it's the current revenue anchor.

Ongoing
Revenue
G

Investigate Ireland Underperformance

Ireland trails every metric consistently. Run a market-specific audit: check feature visibility, sport coverage, competitive landscape, and regulatory constraints.

Low Priority
Investigation
H

Track Brazil VIP Bet-Rate Momentum

Brazil VIP EW bet rate grew +65% in 8 weeks. Set up weekly monitoring dashboards to confirm this isn't seasonal, and to measure impact of any new interventions.

Ongoing
Monitoring